Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:24:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0b6…7271 crypto 1071 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (188 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$263 (-6%) realized −$264 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%467W / 603L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day187.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$212
14 days−$420
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$422
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (188 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 388 +1.9% -7.8% 44% 37% -17.8%
≤30d 1070 -4.0% -13.1% 44% 38% -19.2%
≤90d 1070 -4.0% -13.1% 44% 38% -19.2%
all 1070 -4.0% -13.1% 44% 38% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover187.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 38% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 31% -27.0%
15% -29.0% 24% -34.0%
20% -36.0% 19% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses467 / 603
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1070 / 1071
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day187.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1070 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 86¢ 88¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$10 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.50 · official $12.18 · 2864 history records