Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0b8…f21e sports 63 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$155 (-16%) realized −$155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$71
other 33% −$58
crypto 14% −$42
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -14.9% -23.0% 33% 32% -29.9%
≤30d 62 -12.4% -20.8% 35% 34% -26.2%
≤90d 62 -12.4% -20.8% 35% 34% -26.2%
all 62 -12.4% -20.8% 35% 34% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 34% -26.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 32% -33.3%
15% -35.3% 29% -39.7%
20% -41.6% 23% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 40
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage5d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$17 +204%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$12 -38%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $21 +$21 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $8 $0 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$17 -84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$7 +39%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 −$3 -12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$10 -32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $26 +$26 +99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 +$7 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$8 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +19%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $11 +$7 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 −$37 -70%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$16 +93%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $30 −$2 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Five Fears (BO1) - North Americ Jun 12 $33 −$17 -52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 −$23 -86%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 56¢ $6 2d
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 2d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $42 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $21 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 56¢ $8 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 9¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $8 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $9 3d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records