Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf0b8…cccf weather 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+9%) realized +$49 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +67% what you keep after slip
Net edge+67%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+80.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +99.8% +80.8% 100% 100% +80.8%
≤30d 1 +99.8% +80.8% 100% 100% +80.8%
≤90d 1 +99.8% +80.8% 100% 100% +80.8%
all 1 +99.8% +80.8% 100% 100% +80.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.8% 100% +80.8%
10% +63.5% 100% +63.5%
15% +47.7% 100% +47.7%
20% +33.2% 100% +33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt +100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $26 $32 +$6 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Yes 30¢ 31¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 26? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $55 +$55 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.00 · official $96.40 (match) · 15 history records