Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0ba…3e29 crypto 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$207 (-13%) realized −$199 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$40
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$3
world 19% −$32
crypto 16% +$12
sports 11% −$143
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +34.6% +21.8% 50% 50% -18.3%
≤30d 50 -5.5% -14.5% 48% 38% -7.2%
≤90d 62 -14.3% -22.5% 44% 35% -28.5%
all 62 -14.3% -22.5% 44% 35% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 35% -28.5%
10% -29.9% 27% -35.3%
15% -36.6% 24% -41.6%
20% -42.9% 19% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$199
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)62 / 67
History coverage33d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs next? Yes 46¢ 9¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-81%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-71%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 67¢ 64¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +79%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $300 −$31 -10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 08 $7 +$1 +21%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$10 +490%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $17 +$7 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$3 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +94%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$2 +181%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $2 +$1 +57%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $5 $0 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 04 $7 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$2 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $21 −$1 -6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $2 $0 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $2 $0 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 01 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +119%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 23 $1 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +119%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 22 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 22 $48 +$53 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 20m
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs next? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 64¢ $168 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 33¢ $22 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 32¢ $72 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 68¢ $160 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 34¢ $79 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 66¢ $19 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 66¢ $3 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 68¢ $74 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 28¢ $30 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 74¢ $80 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 26¢ $29 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 27¢ $29 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $34 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 65¢ $68 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 63¢ $38 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 36¢ $77 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 36¢ $80 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $146 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $150 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $111 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $150 22h
Will Tyreek Hill play for the Kansas City Chiefs next? SELL Yes 44¢ $28 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $2.49 (match) · 189 history records