Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0ba…e4cb sports 48 markets active 194d ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27,894 (+13%) realized +$27,894 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate88%42W / 6L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$4,585per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$11,673
tech 20% +$16,754
sports 10% +$33
politics 3% +$86
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 48 +2.7% -7.0% 88% 29% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 29% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 8% -7.2%
15% -24.1% 2% -16.2%
20% -31.5% 2% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$5,106) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$726 vs −$321 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.82 per $1 lost it wins $15.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27,894
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses42 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage62d
Avg bet$4,585
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? Dec 18 $20,040 +$410 +2%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? Dec 17 $17,925 +$2,639 +15%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 11 $31,812 +$5,186 +16%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Dec 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15? Dec 11 $5,106 −$739 -14%
GPT ads by December 31? Dec 11 $9,273 +$293 +3%
Trump out as President by March 31? Dec 03 $462 +$10 +2%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30? Dec 01 $14,558 +$514 +4%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 19 $10,350 +$2,537 +24%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 19 $15,679 +$2,805 +18%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 18 $8,114 +$750 +9%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 15 $20,681 +$1,251 +6%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zv Nov 15 $5 $0 +6%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $3,386 +$163 +5%
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Nov 08 $876 +$86 +10%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 08 $860 +$16 +2%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Nov 08 $300 +$36 +12%
Thunder vs. Kings Nov 08 $200 $0 -0%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Nov 08 $469 +$9 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Wizards Nov 08 $300 +$20 +7%
Pistons vs. Nets Nov 08 $548 +$78 +14%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7? Nov 08 $1,500 +$7 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 08 $4,758 +$53 +1%
Hellenic Championship: Sebastian Korda vs Lorenzo Musetti Nov 07 $2,600 −$1,161 -45%
Open de Moselle: Vitaliy Sachko vs Learner Tien Nov 07 $500 +$25 +5%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Nov 07 $1,066 +$63 +6%
Open de Moselle: Cameron Norrie vs Lorenzo Sonego Nov 07 $900 +$211 +24%
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Yannick Hanfmann Nov 07 $2,416 +$310 +13%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova Nov 07 $72 −$2 -2%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 07 $500 +$18 +4%
Clippers vs. Suns Nov 07 $950 +$23 +2%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2025-11-06? Nov 07 $189 +$4 +2%
Will FC Basel 1893 win on 2025-11-06? Nov 07 $800 +$29 +4%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-11-06? Nov 07 $977 +$23 +2%
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges Nov 06 $4,590 +$140 +3%
Open de Moselle: Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniel Altmaier Nov 06 $100 +$5 +5%
Hornets vs. Pelicans Nov 05 $100 +$8 +8%
Suns vs. Warriors Nov 05 $1,826 +$13 +1%
76ers vs. Bulls Nov 05 $100 +$19 +19%
Timberwolves vs. Nets Nov 04 $40 +$11 +28%
Jazz vs. Celtics Nov 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Atlas have an iOS app live by October 31? Nov 01 $37 +$6 +16%
Will Atlas have a Windows app live by October 31? Nov 01 $818 +$53 +6%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Nov 01 $22,500 +$1,081 +5%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 22 $11,766 +$11,567 +98%
Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Timberwolves vs. Bulls Oct 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? SELL No 100¢ $17,570 194d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? SELL No 100¢ $2,994 194d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 90¢ $130 194d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 90¢ $270 194d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 90¢ $90 194d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 90¢ $180 194d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 90¢ $207 194d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 90¢ $23 194d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 91¢ $1,400 194d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,500 194d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 89¢ $6,000 194d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 89¢ $3,560 194d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 79¢ $91 195d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 80¢ $78 195d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 80¢ $8 195d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 80¢ $474 195d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 81¢ $87 195d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 81¢ $318 195d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16? BUY No 83¢ $5,009 195d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,912 199d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $25,948 199d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 199d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 199d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 199d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,996 199d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 199d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 199d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,198 199d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 199d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $452 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 716 history records