Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F0 0xf0be…8d08 sports 334 markets active 6h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,533 (-1%) realized −$3,496 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate76%250W / 80L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,256per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days−$47
14 days+$423
30 days+$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$4,614
sports 23% −$540
crypto 16% +$790
politics 7% +$672
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -30.0% -36.7% 53% 27% -10.7%
≤30d 71 +0.1% -9.4% 69% 56% -7.0%
≤90d 171 -0.6% -10.1% 67% 47% -7.5%
all 330 -1.4% -10.8% 76% 30% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 30% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 18% -18.9%
15% -27.1% 10% -26.7%
20% -34.3% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,379) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$210 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized−$3,496
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses250 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions4
Markets (closed)330 / 334
History coverage150d
Avg bet$1,256
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India India 94¢ 94¢ $188 $189 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bangladesh win? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $140 $133 −$7 (-5%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Pakistan 75¢ 77¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+3%)
Will England win? Yes 44¢ 20¢ $58 $25 −$32 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands Jun 25 $1,069 +$39 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh Jun 25 $376 +$24 +6%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $458 −$28 -6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $251 +$59 +24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Jun 23 $479 +$20 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $80 +$18 +23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $242 −$1 -0%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $58 −$22 -37%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 21 $90 +$10 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $364 +$35 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $140 −$139 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $224 +$26 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $286 −$33 -12%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $46 −$14 -30%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $113 +$27 +24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $158 +$42 +26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $186 +$13 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $184 +$16 +8%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $129 +$20 +15%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $383 +$17 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $174 +$46 +26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $40 +$10 +25%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $72 +$77 +107%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $54 +$21 +40%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $61 +$39 +65%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $176 +$55 +31%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $76 +$24 +31%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $332 +$72 +22%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $134 +$15 +11%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $81 +$18 +23%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $382 +$12 +3%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $27 +$73 +271%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $67 −$12 -18%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $73 +$27 +37%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $112 −$111 -99%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $79 −$59 -75%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $72 +$28 +38%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Kent Jun 07 $89 +$11 +12%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire Jun 07 $84 −$84 -100%
Will England win? Jun 07 $128 +$72 +56%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $165 −$114 -69%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 05 $257 +$43 +16%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Somerset Jun 05 $80 +$19 +24%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $107 −$106 -99%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $249 −$53 -21%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $91 +$58 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bangladesh win? BUY Yes 70¢ $140 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 75¢ $45 8h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 75¢ $6 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands SELL South Africa 100¢ $1,108 14h
Will England win? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15h
Will England win? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh SELL India 100¢ $100 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh SELL India 100¢ $300 16h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY India 94¢ $188 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 96¢ $384 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 96¢ $256 28h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 96¢ $429 28h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings SELL Texas Super Kings 100¢ $400 28h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings SELL San Francisco Unicorns 9¢ $1 28h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 91¢ $183 28h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 80¢ $30 28h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 80¢ $24 28h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 80¢ $8 28h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 80¢ $99 28h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings SELL San Francisco Unicorns 22¢ $30 28h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY San Francisco Unicorns 70¢ $35 29h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY San Francisco Unicorns 79¢ $79 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies SELL England 100¢ $310 37h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 94¢ $47 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY England 82¢ $82 39h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 94¢ $16 46h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY India 94¢ $313 46h
Will England win? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will England win? BUY Yes 54¢ $24 2d
Will England win? BUY Yes 54¢ $24 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.34 · official $399.34 (match) · 3002 history records