Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0c0…5837 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$322 (+1%) realized +$2,737 · open −$2,415
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$928per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$179est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$3,025
sports 47% −$334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -13.2% -21.5% 44% 44% -13.2%
≤30d 27 -13.2% -21.5% 44% 44% -13.2%
≤90d 27 -13.2% -21.5% 44% 44% -13.2%
all 27 -13.2% -21.5% 44% 44% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 44% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 33% -21.5%
15% -35.9% 19% -29.1%
20% -42.2% 4% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,300) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$292 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$473
Realized+$2,737
Unrealized−$2,415
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$179
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage6d
Avg bet$928
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 10¢ $2,888 $473 −$2,415 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,873 −$555 -19%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,302 −$846 -65%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $896 +$371 +41%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $509 −$68 -13%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $153 −$153 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,300 +$468 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,008 +$317 +16%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,191 −$320 -27%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,770 −$572 -32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $990 +$201 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,008 −$1,273 -63%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 −$245 -81%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $101 +$53 +52%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $222 +$59 +27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,503 +$732 +49%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $592 +$171 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $693 +$219 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $306 −$141 -46%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $997 +$443 +44%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $872 +$151 +17%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $593 −$28 -5%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $905 −$37 -4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $801 +$257 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$17 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,924 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 54¢ $2,318 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 23¢ $456 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $507 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,858 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,267 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $896 8h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $1,302 11h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL 34¢ $442 26h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 38¢ $509 29h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Ghana 96¢ $1,768 29h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 70¢ $1,300 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,008 33h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $871 2d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $1,198 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,191 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,191 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $990 2d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,010 2d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $761 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 25¢ $734 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $58 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,906 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $154 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $101 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 23¢ $10 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $473.03 · official $473.03 (match) · 77 history records