Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0c3…8a6c sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$21 (-10%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$8
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +75.7% +59.0% 47% 47% -11.0%
≤30d 15 +75.7% +59.0% 47% 47% -11.0%
≤90d 15 +75.7% +59.0% 47% 47% -11.0%
all 15 +75.7% +59.0% 47% 47% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +59.0% 47% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here +43.8% 47% -19.5%
15% +29.9% 47% -27.3%
20% +17.2% 47% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +76% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +198% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$10 +970%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$9 +62%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $19 +$26 +135%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 +$13 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +450%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +118%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $33 +$31 +93%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 −$7 -82%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -63%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 48m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 48m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 48¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 9¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $9 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $3 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 96¢ $6 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 17¢ $1 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $24 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 6h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 21h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 22h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 22h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $33 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 23h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $6 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $1 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $0 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $18 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records