Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F0 0xf0c5…0e30 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$8
other 22% $0
crypto 4% −$1
politics 3% $0
sports 3% +$2
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.3% -7.5% 20% 20% -6.3%
≤30d 20 +2.8% -7.0% 45% 10% -8.2%
≤90d 20 +2.8% -7.0% 45% 10% -8.2%
all 45 +2.1% -7.6% 47% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 7% -8.3%
10% -16.4% 4% -17.0%
15% -24.5% 2% -25.1%
20% -31.9% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage492d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $10 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $38 +$5 +12%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $40 −$1 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $38 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $9 +$3 +30%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $35 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jan 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $7 $0 -7%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 03 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 −$1 -31%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the NBA Draft Lottery? May 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 08 $5 $0 -2%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad May 05 $8 $0 +4%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $9 $0 +0%
St. Francis (PA) vs. Le-Moyne Mar 05 $3 +$3 +89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 25 $4 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $47 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $47 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $23 8h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $23 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $9 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $12 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $43 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $19 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $19 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $2 10d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $37 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $2 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $40 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $20 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $19 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $13 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $25 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records