Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf0c7…8a6a sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$396 (-16%) realized −$395 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$434
other 40% −$518
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +50.2% +35.9% 32% 32% -8.8%
≤30d 25 +50.2% +35.9% 32% 32% -8.8%
≤90d 25 +50.2% +35.9% 32% 32% -8.8%
all 26 +44.4% +30.6% 31% 31% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.6% 31% -12.8%
10% +18.1% 31% -21.2%
15% +6.7% 31% -28.8%
20% -3.7% 31% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +91% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$78 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$395
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage136d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$4 -7%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $254 −$250 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 −$99 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $305 +$380 +124%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $153 −$150 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$121 +238%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria wi Jun 23 $26 +$339 +1320%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$68 +134%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $87 −$46 -54%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 +$150 +147%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $153 −$153 -100%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $26 −$2 -7%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 +$93 +182%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$48 +236%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 +$129 +127%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $82 −$51 -62%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 18¢ $18 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $47 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 20¢ $20 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) AND Wi BUY $21 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 4h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 37¢ $204 5h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $254 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 9h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $101 9h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $123 11h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $203 14h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals AND Will Croatia BUY $51 25h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $31 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $51 28h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 40¢ $102 28h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 28h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 17¢ $40 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 31h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $87 36h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $71 47h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 31¢ $24 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $20 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $26 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria wi BUY $26 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 95¢ $144 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.38 · official $54.40 · 60 history records