Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf0cf…1d21 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$15
finance 2% −$3
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -29.0% -35.8% 20% 20% -25.3%
≤30d 5 -29.0% -35.8% 20% 20% -25.3%
≤90d 7 -24.1% -31.3% 29% 29% -26.5%
all 7 -24.1% -31.3% 29% 29% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 29% -26.5%
10% -37.9% 29% -33.5%
15% -43.9% 29% -40.0%
20% -49.4% 14% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage80d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17 −$10 -59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$12 +118%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $4 −$3 -72%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 04 $1 +$1 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 71¢ $41 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $42 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $17 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 18h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 79d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 79d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 79d
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 79d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.59 · official $63.59 (match) · 18 history records