Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0d1…a7ab weather 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%105W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 32% $0
politics 18% −$3
crypto 17% −$8
other 14% −$4
culture 9% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 2% −$9
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 72 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 153 -2.0% -11.3% 45% 0% -9.8%
all 203 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses105 / 98
Open positions4
Markets (closed)203 / 207
History coverage546d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 25 Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 19? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 19? Jun 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 6? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 3? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 4? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 4? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 3? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 3? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Katie Bansil be the Democratic nominee for NJ-06? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Rae Huang finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 2? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadia Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1? Jun 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on June Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 3 and 4 days? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 31? Jun 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 25 by May 31? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 25-31? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Martinelli have the most goal contributions in the 2025-2 May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 25 SELL No 100¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 25 SELL No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $12 19h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 25 BUY No 100¢ $29 27h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $25 33h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $12 7d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $29 22d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 22d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $8 22d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 100¢ $17 22d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $23 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $13 22d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $30 22d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $29 22d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 22d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $7 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.45 · official $41.45 (match) · 516 history records