Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0d2…267f world 116 markets active 6d ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$3
politics 21% −$4
world 17% −$8
sports 11% −$3
economics 6% −$1
crypto 6% −$3
finance 5% −$2
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.6% -7.1% 50% 50% -13.6%
≤30d 12 +116.2% +95.6% 17% 17% -9.8%
≤90d 86 +15.8% +4.8% 2% 2% -9.7%
all 113 +11.6% +1.0% 2% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 2% -9.7%
10% -8.7% 1% -18.3%
15% -17.5% 1% -26.2%
20% -25.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×11.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)113 / 116
History coverage91d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 40¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $67 −$6 -9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $171 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $17 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $41 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $76 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $154 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $31 +$4 +14%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $299 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $238 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 27 $4 $0 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $197 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 23 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $605 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $40 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Apr 16 $1 $0 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $30 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $81 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 09 $2,502 −$2 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $286 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $112 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $139 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $80 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 06 $731 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 06 $330 −$1 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $90 $0 -0%
Clippers vs. Kings Apr 06 $50 $0 -0%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 05 $170 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL No 55¢ $19 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 48¢ $17 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $23 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $23 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $13 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $14 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $11 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $16 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $12 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 32¢ $12 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $2 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $2 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 54¢ $7 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes $0 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $2 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 60¢ $9 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL No 64¢ $6 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 65¢ $13 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 36¢ $0 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes $3 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $38 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 36¢ $13 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.00 (match) · 1346 history records