Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf0d5…c665
politics · 412 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$378,366 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$383,490 · open +$2,553
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$79,118
Realized−$383,490
Unrealized+$2,553
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses327 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions33
Markets (closed)401 / 412
History coverage35d
Avg bet$4,469
Trades / day85.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 33 History 401 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168,339
7 days−$478,615
14 days−$411,759
30 days−$393,744
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $15,161 $16,276 +$1,115 (+7%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $10,098 $9,929 −$169 (-2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 97¢ $9,542 $9,723 +$181 (+2%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $6,993 $6,996 +$4 (+0%)
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $6,867 $6,866 −$1 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 85¢ $5,896 $5,655 −$241 (-4%)
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $4,995 $4,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $2,769 $3,097 +$329 (+12%)
Will SpaceX IPO on June 30, 2026 or later? No 97¢ 100¢ $2,730 $2,795 +$65 (+2%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 35¢ 72¢ $1,297 $2,707 +$1,410 (+109%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,843 $1,845 +$3 (+0%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? No 80¢ 91¢ $1,239 $1,413 +$174 (+14%)
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,088 $1,086 −$3 (-0%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 63¢ 70¢ $761 $852 +$91 (+12%)
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? No 99¢ 99¢ $748 $750 +$2 (+0%)
Will Meta acquire TikTok? No 99¢ 99¢ $570 $571 +$1 (+0%)
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 75¢ 93¢ $436 $540 +$104 (+24%)
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $419 $418 −$1 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $397 $397 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? No 98¢ 100¢ $297 $300 +$3 (+1%)
Will SpaceX list on the NYSE? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX IPO on June 15, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $291 $290 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? No 39¢ 49¢ $193 $244 +$51 (+27%)
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $205 $205 +$0 (+0%)
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 41¢ 11¢ $752 $202 −$550 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 28? Jun 12 $158 −$158 -100%
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game Jun 12 $580 +$955 +165%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Jun 12 $0 +$1,317 +364791%
Will Karoline Leavitt be between 25 and 30 minutes late to the next pr Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "Brian Ronan" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 12 $50,977 −$50,977 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 18, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Walter Trarbach" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Jun 12 $50,977 −$50,977 -100%
Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Jun 12 $24 −$676 -2786%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 7, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$61 +6903%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? Jun 12 $2,720 −$2,836 -104%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 6, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$15 +4653%
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Jun 12 $132 +$237 +179%
Will "Adam Fisher" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 12 $50,977 −$50,977 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $365 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $722 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $326 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $243 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $460 −$68 -15%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $115,000 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 10? Jun 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $86 $0 +0%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $6,445 +$2 +0%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $27,778 +$163 +1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $266 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $17,065 −$29 -0%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 11 $444 +$13 +3%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $493 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $68,582 −$14,128 -21%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $15,648 +$69 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $399 +$1 +0%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 09 $4,463 +$29 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2,307 +$2 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $18,682 +$31 +0%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $169 +$85 +50%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $79 +$16 +20%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $544 +$1 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $24,455 +$29 +0%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $2,772 +$105 +4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $21,008 +$773 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 55% −$314,473
politics 22% −$6,865
other 9% +$25,928
crypto 8% +$60,740
tech 3% +$1,795
sports 3% +$5,823
economics 1% +$410
finance 0% +$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 100¢ $365 9m
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 100¢ $723 27m
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 44m
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,497 44m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $562 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $160 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $365 1h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,998 7h
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,716 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $349 8h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,798 8h
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $2,680 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $15 8h
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? BUY No 99¢ $550 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $764 8h
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 8h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $6,993 9h
Will Donald Trump dance on June 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $243 10h
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 11h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $62 11h
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,997 11h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $392 11h
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 11h
Will SpaceX list on the NYSE? BUY No 100¢ $300 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $29 11h
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $971 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $113 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 17¢ $139 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +76.4% +59.6% 75% 10% -52.0%
≤30d 378 +31.3% +18.8% 81% 11% -32.9%
≤90d 401 +49.4% +35.2% 82% 12% -31.9%
all 401 +49.4% +35.2% 82% 12% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover85.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.2% 12% -31.9%
10% +22.2% 7% -38.4%
15% ← realistic here +10.4% 7% -44.4%
20% -0.4% 6% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79,117.76 · official $79,111.78 (match) · 3500 history records