Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf0d9…e4ee
world · 73 markets active 7d ago
0.0score
+$235,192 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$184,504 · open +$45,117
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 6 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3,770
30 days−$116,456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 51¢ 88¢ $59,383 $102,027 +$42,644 (+72%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 74¢ 99¢ $17,656 $23,475 +$5,819 (+33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $16,319 $10,012 −$6,307 (-39%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 68¢ 99¢ $4,216 $6,159 +$1,943 (+46%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 34¢ 76¢ $1,700 $3,825 +$2,125 (+125%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 55¢ 21¢ $1,792 $686 −$1,107 (-62%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Yes 35¢ $9,363 $0 −$9,363 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ $1,283 $0 −$1,283 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 23¢ $9,381 $0 −$9,381 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 48¢ $32,966 $0 −$32,966 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ $96,429 $0 −$96,429 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Yes $1,501 $0 −$1,501 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Yes $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 05 $3,040 +$680 +22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $54,577 +$423 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Jun 01 $3,820 +$268 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $17,600 +$2,400 +14%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 29 $665 +$42 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $9,381 −$9,381 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $15,964 +$20,036 +126%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $33,166 −$32,966 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $96,446 −$96,429 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $27 −$27 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 22 $1,501 −$1,501 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $30,058 +$78,360 +261%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 08 $820 −$782 -95%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 08 $6,930 −$6,905 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 08 $99,700 +$300 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $1,283 −$1,283 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $418,290 +$11,045 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $104,526 +$260,921 +250%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $7,961 +$25,314 +318%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 07 $9,364 −$9,363 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 02 $77,776 +$2,144 +3%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Apr 01 $4,326 −$4,326 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Apr 01 $12,607 −$12,274 -97%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 01 $21,557 −$12,420 -58%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Apr 01 $12,054 −$12,054 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 01 $21,923 −$21,923 -100%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Apr 01 $27,727 −$26,507 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $3,063 −$3,063 -100%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Apr 01 $855 −$855 -100%
Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago? Apr 01 $126 −$126 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Apr 01 $28,870 −$28,266 -98%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Mar 31 $5,441 −$5,441 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $5,389 +$463 +9%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $135,164 +$1,979 +2%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $6,700 +$3,300 +49%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Feb 02 $8,701 +$2,059 +24%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $55,887 +$12,448 +22%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $45,678 +$322 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 27 $57,777 +$1,872 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 20 $15,679 −$8,550 -54%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $8,189 +$3,284 +40%
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026? Jan 10 $1,159 +$81 +7%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 10 $74,001 +$2,565 +4%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $138,220 +$2,144 +2%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Jan 02 $39 +$31 +79%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Jan 02 $29 +$87 +300%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Jan 02 $1,640 +$360 +22%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jan 02 $9,643 +$422 +4%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jan 02 $92,212 +$10,755 +12%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $210,486 −$44,970 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% +$329,465
other 19% −$105,396
politics 16% −$1,390
economics 16% +$46,196
crypto 2% +$3,685
sports 2% −$31,046
tech 1% −$12,332
culture 0% +$440
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2,790 7d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 7d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 8d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $387 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54,577 9d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $8 9d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $8 10d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $1,671 10d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $150 10d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 11d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $1 11d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $157 11d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $148 11d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $11 11d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $14 12d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $5 12d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $9 12d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $5 12d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $48 12d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $2 12d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $1 12d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $12 12d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $8 12d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $12 12d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $217 13d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $1 14d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $1 14d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $1,172 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2,223 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $460 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -29.5% -36.2% 55% 27% -54.2%
≤90d 32 -29.2% -35.9% 38% 19% -0.2%
all 67 +34.4% +21.6% 64% 36% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.6% 36% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here +9.9% 27% -12.2%
15% -0.7% 19% -20.7%
20% -10.4% 15% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146,183.34 · official $146,183.34 (match) · 3500 history records