Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F0 0xf0dc…6956 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$153 (+9%) realized −$182 · open +$335
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$538per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$256
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-63.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -59.3% -63.2% 0% 0% -28.1%
≤90d 2 -59.3% -63.2% 0% 0% -28.1%
all 2 -59.3% -63.2% 0% 0% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.2% 0% -28.1%
10% -66.7% 0% -34.9%
15% -69.9% 0% -41.2%
20% -72.9% 0% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$44 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1,486
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$335
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage21d
Avg bet$538
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $1,151 $1,486 +$335 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $423 −$79 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $797 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $141 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $236 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $236 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $111 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $108 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $203 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $99 21d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,486.00 · official $1,486.00 (match) · 37 history records