Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:29:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0e0…016a other 211 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$918 (-10%) realized −$770 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate6%12W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days−$332
14 days−$820
30 days−$946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$700
sports 24% −$116
politics 10% −$169
world 4% −$24
crypto 3% −$51
tech 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -12.0% -20.4% 6% 0% -17.3%
≤30d 199 -14.1% -22.2% 6% 1% -19.4%
≤90d 200 -14.0% -22.2% 6% 1% -19.4%
all 200 -14.0% -22.2% 6% 1% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 1% -19.4%
10% -29.6% 0% -27.1%
15% -36.4% 0% -34.1%
20% -42.7% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized−$770
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses12 / 188
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions11
Markets (closed)200 / 211
History coverage36d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 72¢ $85 $72 −$14 (-16%)
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? No 69¢ 51¢ $69 $51 −$18 (-26%)
Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? Yes 57¢ 42¢ $57 $42 −$15 (-26%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 62¢ 38¢ $62 $38 −$24 (-39%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $36 $28 −$8 (-21%)
Will 6+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 43¢ $24 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 38¢ 11¢ $34 $10 −$24 (-71%)
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 20¢ 10¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Yes 24¢ 6¢ $24 $6 −$18 (-77%)
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 10¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-62%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? Jun 18 $86 −$3 -4%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $160B by December 31? Jun 18 $12 −$5 -44%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 17 $9 $0 -3%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 17 $50 −$5 -10%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 17 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Jun 17 $76 −$5 -7%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will 100T make a roster change before August? Jun 17 $14 $0 -2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $57 −$3 -5%
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? Jun 17 $14 −$1 -9%
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals Jun 17 $13 $0 -2%
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Jun 17 $52 −$5 -10%
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $19 $0 -2%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $24 −$2 -6%
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? Jun 17 $12 −$4 -34%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -36%
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $11 −$5 -46%
MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks? Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -16%
Will Emiliano Martinez stay at Aston Villa? Jun 17 $28 $0 -2%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $45 −$5 -11%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 17 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.9B? Jun 17 $79 −$35 -44%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Ma Jun 17 $82 −$2 -2%
Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company? Jun 17 $78 −$4 -5%
Will Aurélien Tchouaméni score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $72 −$3 -4%
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 16 $19 −$5 -26%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 16 $12 $0 -4%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? Jun 16 $26 −$15 -57%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $69 +$3 +5%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $135B by June 30? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -12%
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August? Jun 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $125 −$20 -16%
Will Dr. Daniel Santos win the Governor of Pará election? Jun 16 $58 −$4 -7%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $97 −$7 -7%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $82 −$7 -8%
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 16 $87 −$5 -6%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 16 $70 −$6 -9%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 15 $28 −$1 -2%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will Erling Haaland score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -7%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $43 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 15 $43 −$1 -1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) Jun 15 $41 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 16m
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $52 1h
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $31 1h
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $86 1h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $160B by December 31? SELL No 5¢ $3 2h
Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 4h
Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 4h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) SELL 9z 45¢ $45 4h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) SELL 9z 55¢ $54 4h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 50¢ $50 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $55 5h
Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 5h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? SELL No 71¢ $71 5h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? BUY No 76¢ $76 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $5 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $8 6h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $9 6h
Will 100T make a roster change before August? SELL No 67¢ $13 6h
Will 100T make a roster change before August? BUY No 68¢ $14 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 54¢ $53 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 54¢ $1 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $57 6h
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 20¢ $20 9h
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 11h
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 11h
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 11h
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 11h
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals SELL Yes 21¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.60 · official $277.61 (match) · 681 history records