Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:22:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0e4…fe5b other 58 markets active 8h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-9%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%23W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$9
14 days−$19
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$36
sports 31% −$17
crypto 24% +$16
world 3% −$3
economics 2% $0
tech 1% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 50% -14.8%
≤30d 23 -3.7% -12.9% 52% 48% -19.4%
≤90d 23 -3.7% -12.9% 52% 48% -19.4%
all 45 -9.1% -17.8% 51% 38% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 38% -19.6%
10% -25.7% 38% -27.3%
15% -32.8% 36% -34.3%
20% -39.4% 24% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses23 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)45 / 58
History coverage241d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$13 +256%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$6 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $7 +$7 +101%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$14 +68%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Valorant: NRG vs Team Liquid - Map 2 Winner Mar 04 $23 $0 +2%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Mar 03 $5 $0 +8%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 25 $10 −$2 -20%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 25 $5 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Nov 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 21? Nov 19 $7 +$6 +94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 20? Nov 17 $1 +$1 +104%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 19? Nov 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 17? Nov 17 $4 +$2 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $22 −$19 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 14 $8 −$6 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $17 −$6 -33%
Stars vs. Canadiens Nov 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Solana dip to $140 before 2026? Nov 13 $21 +$10 +48%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 Nov 13 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Nov 11 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 1PM ET Nov 11 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Nov 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Octobe Oct 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $5 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $5 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $5 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $5 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $6 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $5 21h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $7 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $7 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $8 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $7 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $15 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.88 · official $59.88 (match) · 100 history records