Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0e8…904c crypto 906 markets active 2h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,981 (+6%) realized +$5,051 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%376W / 527L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$495
7 days−$515
14 days−$515
30 days−$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$5,564
crypto 41% −$1,200
sports 4% −$76
finance 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -8.6% -17.3% 34% 34% -21.5%
≤30d 68 -8.6% -17.3% 34% 34% -21.5%
≤90d 252 -53.9% -58.3% 21% 17% -6.5%
all 903 -8.3% -17.0% 42% 39% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 39% -5.3%
10% -25.0% 36% -14.3%
15% -32.2% 33% -22.6%
20% -38.9% 29% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$43 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized+$5,051
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses376 / 527
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)903 / 906
History coverage190d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 903 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 78¢ $330 $332 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Yes 71¢ 5¢ $77 $5 −$72 (-93%)
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $3 +$330 +10690%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $19 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $11 −$11 -97%
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Algeria to score first vs. Austria? Jun 28 $107 −$105 -98%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $564 −$560 -99%
Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 27 $505 +$71 +14%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 England? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 27 $17 −$16 -94%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $162 −$160 -99%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $150 +$18 +12%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $135 +$16 +12%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $4 −$3 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $252 +$113 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $57 +$38 +66%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $152 −$152 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15? Jun 26 $505 −$505 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 26 $64 −$64 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 71¢ $79 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $332 3h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 12h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 12h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 12h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 12h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 14h
Algeria to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 40¢ $107 14h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 16h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $564 16h
Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No 90¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 England? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 27h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 0¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 37h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $162 37h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 39h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $150 39h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $135 2d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 3¢ $11 2d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 3¢ $6 2d
Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 87¢ $505 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $150 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $61 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $303 2d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,018 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 28¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.84 · official $338.84 (match) · 2934 history records