Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf0ee…8067 sports 1376 markets active 1h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,037 (+4%) realized +$1,037 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%647W / 729L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$14
14 days−$58
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$139
other 16% +$813
world 1% +$32
politics 0% −$18
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -1.7% -11.1% 42% 42% -11.0%
≤30d 52 -18.9% -26.6% 35% 35% -18.9%
≤90d 199 -24.5% -31.7% 35% 35% -30.2%
all 1376 +5.2% -4.8% 47% 47% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 47% -7.6%
10% -13.9% 45% -16.5%
15% -22.2% 41% -24.5%
20% -29.9% 35% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,037
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses647 / 729
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1376 / 1376
History coverage405d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1376 Trades
no open positions (358 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $36 −$35 -99%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $17 +$21 +123%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $15 +$14 +90%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$42 +165%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $16 +$20 +124%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 +$87 +250%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $49 −$48 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $36 +$33 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Jun 14 $28 +$21 +73%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Martos: Joao Domingues vs Pablo Martinez Gomez Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $39 +$21 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$32 +262%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $15 +$12 +79%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $13 +$29 +216%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $15 +$10 +67%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $15 +$15 +101%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $35 +$33 +97%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Caijsa Hennemann vs Julia Avdeeva Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 +$21 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $12 +$31 +249%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Heather Watson vs Beatriz Haddad Ma Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $23 +$21 +89%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $12 −$1 -5%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Avaí FC vs. Criciúma EC end in a draw? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Maks Kasnikowski 54¢ $25 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 56¢ $30 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $27 16h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 19h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Alan Wazny $5 21h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 52¢ $36 21h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $22 23h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 11¢ $10 24h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron $1 24h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 44¢ $17 25h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 52¢ $15 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 38h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Bruno Fernandez 43¢ $25 40h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 15¢ $7 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 42h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Sachia Vickery 44¢ $16 45h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus BUY Lin Zhu 56¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $35 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alicia Dudeney 54¢ $49 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 58¢ $29 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 51¢ $36 3d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Alexander Shevchenko 52¢ $23 3d
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman SELL Victoria Milovanova 100¢ $49 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Zachary Svajda 56¢ $20 3d
ITF Martos: Joao Domingues vs Pablo Martinez Gomez BUY Joao Domingues 57¢ $15 3d
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman BUY Victoria Milovanova 57¢ $28 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $39 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2472 history records