Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf0ef…c822 sports 482 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,821 (+5%) realized +$5,774 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate67%318W / 156L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$485est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$202
7 days+$449
14 days+$2,111
30 days+$2,929
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$4,924
other 17% +$622
politics 3% +$176
world 1% −$175
weather 1% −$39
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +5.3% -4.7% 67% 62% -5.4%
≤30d 137 +9.8% -0.6% 72% 64% +3.6%
≤90d 382 +0.2% -9.3% 69% 56% -6.7%
all 474 +3.4% -6.5% 67% 54% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 54% -4.8%
10% -15.4% 36% -13.9%
15% -23.6% 26% -22.3%
20% -31.1% 19% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$111 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$456
Realized+$5,774
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses318 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$485
Open positions5
Markets (closed)474 / 482
History coverage249d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $160 $200 +$40 (+25%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Canada 89¢ 100¢ $134 $150 +$16 (+12%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 77¢ 100¢ $77 $101 +$23 (+30%)
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 48¢ 10¢ $21 $5 −$16 (-78%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $17 $1 −$16 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $250 +$16 +6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $201 +$39 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 +$171 +67%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $293 −$290 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $303 −$300 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $165 −$81 -49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $163 +$89 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $29 +$48 +165%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $106 +$44 +41%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $127 +$84 +66%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 +$15 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $245 +$164 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $150 +$16 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $92 +$60 +65%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $178 +$74 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $398 +$206 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $314 +$136 +43%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $286 −$286 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $528 +$72 +14%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $390 +$110 +28%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $201 −$162 -81%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $251 +$18 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $126 +$74 +59%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $49 +$51 +104%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $175 +$75 +43%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $220 +$30 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $135 +$15 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$14 +47%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $215 +$35 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $175 +$75 +43%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $30 +$20 +67%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $49 +$26 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$10 -20%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $60 +$40 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 77¢ $78 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 89¢ $134 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $160 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 94¢ $150 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 63¢ $51 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $250 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 28h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $0 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 70¢ $252 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 31h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 32h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $15 32h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 36¢ $15 33h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 30¢ $15 33h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 13¢ $20 39h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $29 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $163 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $35 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 41¢ $25 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $106 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 68¢ $23 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 68¢ $2 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 68¢ $3 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 68¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.04 · official $453.57 (match) · 1639 history records