Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F0 0xf0f0…197f sports 27 markets active 10h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$187 (+67%) realized +$187 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip

Net edge+31%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%12W / 15L

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day5.2pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+36.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	+51.0%	+36.6%	44%	44%	+47.7%
≤30d	27	+51.0%	+36.6%	44%	44%	+47.7%
≤90d	27	+51.0%	+36.6%	44%	44%	+47.7%
all	27	+51.0%	+36.6%	44%	44%	+47.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+36.6%	44%	+47.7%
10%	+23.5%	44%	+33.6%
15%	+11.6%	44%	+20.6%
20%	+0.6%	44%	+8.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +51% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +90% → late +15% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$9 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$187

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses12 / 15

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions0

Markets (closed)27 / 27

History coverage6d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day5.2

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 27 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$16	+$49	+313%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$11	−$10	-95%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-95%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	Jun 19	$5	+$24	+458%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$5	+$12	+228%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$21	−$21	-100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$15	+$30	+207%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$5	+$11	+207%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$16	+$24	+151%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$12	+$35	+304%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$16	+$52	+332%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$5	+$8	+158%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$26	−$26	-100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$10	−$3	-25%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	+$12	+228%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$21	+$24	+112%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$20	+$20	+103%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	26¢	$11	9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	23¢	$16	9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	35¢	$10	12h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	24¢	$5	14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	35h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	17¢	$5	38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	29¢	$5	42h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$5	44h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	31¢	$15	2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	22¢	$5	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	5¢	$2	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	6¢	$3	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$11	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	27¢	$5	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	32¢	$5	2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	31¢	$5	3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	38¢	$16	3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	7¢	$1	3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	31¢	$11	3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	37¢	$5	4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	42¢	$8	4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$16	4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$10	4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	34¢	$5	4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	37¢	$21	4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records