Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:24:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf0f0…26ed sports 315 markets active 2h ago coverage 737d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,801 (+4%) realized +$5,031 · open −$230
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate74%231W / 83L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$938est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$978
7 days+$812
14 days+$1,122
30 days−$852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$5,125
crypto 1% −$598
other 0% −$80
world 0% −$156
politics 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +6.9% -3.3% 81% 43% -6.6%
≤30d 92 -3.4% -12.6% 71% 42% -11.5%
≤90d 298 +4.9% -5.1% 75% 54% -6.0%
all 314 +4.5% -5.5% 74% 53% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 53% -6.2%
10% -14.5% 41% -15.2%
15% -22.8% 28% -23.4%
20% -30.4% 16% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$555) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$237 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

737d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,031
Unrealized−$230
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses231 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$938
Open positions1
Markets (closed)314 / 315
History coverage737d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 46¢ 0¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $394 +$62 +16%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $326 +$66 +20%
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $281 +$45 +16%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $263 −$263 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $186 −$186 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $613 +$45 +7%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $383 +$297 +78%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $242 −$242 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $601 +$20 +3%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $604 −$603 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $383 −$383 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $352 +$130 +37%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $180 +$70 +39%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $192 +$18 +10%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $555 +$14 +2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $386 +$136 +35%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $205 −$204 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $2,190 +$42 +2%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) Jun 17 $34 +$6 +16%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $34 +$11 +33%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $581 +$40 +7%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $540 +$24 +4%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $96 +$144 +150%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,167 −$48 -4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $288 +$372 +129%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $378 +$122 +32%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $300 +$71 +24%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $125 +$49 +39%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $989 +$56 +6%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,681 +$76 +4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $180 +$70 +39%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $934 −$23 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $156 +$144 +92%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $650 +$16 +2%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,367 +$3 +0%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $34 +$8 +25%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $275 +$112 +41%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $422 +$66 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $571 +$125 +22%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $555 +$15 +3%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $332 +$21 +6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $789 −$98 -12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $570 +$46 +8%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $472 +$19 +4%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $545 +$6 +1%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $175 +$45 +26%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $1,027 +$87 +8%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $342 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 46¢ $44 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 46¢ $46 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 46¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 46¢ $46 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 46¢ $93 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $455 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 86¢ $394 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $392 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 83¢ $326 6h
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $326 6h
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 86¢ $238 6h
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 86¢ $43 6h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 77¢ $231 9h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 65¢ $25 9h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 64¢ $6 9h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 66¢ $186 9h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 100¢ $658 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $71 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $94 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $3 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $162 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $72 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $38 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $55 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $20 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $20 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $10 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $59 10h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 93¢ $9 10h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 100¢ $680 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.25 (match) · 1557 history records