Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:19:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0f2…b985 politics 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate9%4W / 39L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$5
sports 28% +$24
world 7% $0
other 5% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +27.2% +15.1% 100% 100% +15.1%
≤30d 2 +13.7% +2.8% 100% 50% +2.8%
≤90d 2 +13.7% +2.8% 100% 50% +2.8%
all 43 -10.2% -18.8% 9% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 2% -9.1%
10% -26.6% 2% -17.8%
15% -33.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -40.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×26.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses4 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage221d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $126 $126 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $99 +$27 +27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $101 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 22? Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 28 $101 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $1 $0 -25%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $99 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 24 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $104 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $1 $0 -50%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $108 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $106 $0 +0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $220 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will José Cardoso win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 18 $105 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $202 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $104 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $216 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 27 $109 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 26 $1 $0 -20%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $109 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 20 $109 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 08 $109 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $126 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $99 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $100 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 99d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 113d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 113d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 122d
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla BUY Yes 0¢ $1 127d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 127d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 130d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $102 135d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $102 136d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 138d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 138d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 139d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 139d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 140d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $100 140d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $100 141d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 141d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 142d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 142d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 142d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 142d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 143d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 143d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $103 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.17 · official $126.17 (match) · 186 history records