Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0f7…eac7 crypto 206 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,607 (-28%) realized −$1,193 · open −$414
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%74W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$699
7 days−$822
14 days−$822
30 days−$850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$782
crypto 20% −$463
world 14% −$159
other 12% −$491
politics 10% +$32
weather 2% −$59
economics 2% −$100
finance 1% +$7
tech 1% −$29
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -38.5% -44.3% 30% 30% -50.0%
≤30d 12 -23.2% -30.5% 33% 33% -48.8%
≤90d 12 -23.2% -30.5% 33% 33% -48.8%
all 204 -15.3% -23.4% 36% 33% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 33% -37.4%
10% -30.7% 29% -43.4%
15% -37.4% 26% -48.9%
20% -43.6% 23% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$1,193
Unrealized−$414
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses74 / 130
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)204 / 206
History coverage290d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 32¢ 6¢ $480 $82 −$397 (-83%)
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Panama 11¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $274 −$270 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $139 −$138 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $206 −$204 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $274 −$270 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 −$304 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $406 +$352 +87%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 +$28 +124%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $91 −$90 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $30 +$63 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 25 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? Feb 15 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 15 $160 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 15? Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Feb 15 $67 +$69 +104%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? Feb 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in Janua Feb 14 $26 +$37 +146%
Will Amazon reach $248 in February? Feb 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 11 $7 +$3 +47%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 11 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026? Feb 11 $4 +$6 +138%
Cavaliers vs. Kings Feb 11 $11 +$29 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 07 $20 +$20 +98%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of January Jan 31 $10 +$15 +147%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026? Jan 31 $4 +$6 +178%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of January? Jan 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026? Jan 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,850-$4,975 in January? Jan 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January? Jan 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jan 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026? Jan 26 $62 +$38 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 24? Jan 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026? Jan 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Jan 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 6AM ET Jan 23 $8 +$2 +33%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026? Jan 22 $106 +$33 +31%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026? Jan 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026? Jan 22 $92 +$65 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4AM ET Jan 22 $44 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8AM ET Jan 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 7AM ET Jan 21 $42 +$8 +20%
Will "Epstein" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Exper Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $110K on September 10? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "God" 10+ times during Museum of the Bible speech on Se Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Museum of the Bible speech on September 8 Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $68 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $163 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $168 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 11¢ $17 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $274 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $139 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $206 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $274 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $304 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $406 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $22 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $33 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $92 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $91 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $30 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $19 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 122d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 35¢ $21 122d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 35¢ $35 122d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 15? BUY Up 33¢ $23 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.95 · official $82.95 (match) · 542 history records