Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:48:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0f9…086c politics 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 394d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$4
other 35% −$6
sports 11% −$2
world 4% −$1
culture 4% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -25.1% -32.2% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 7 -25.1% -32.2% 14% 0% -10.5%
all 84 -8.4% -17.2% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage394d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $66 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1 $0 -34%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $136 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 06 $57 $0 -1%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $144 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $75 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $68 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 25 $66 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 24 $214 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $70 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 05 $69 $0 -0%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Jan 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $74 $0 -1%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $143 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 31 $1 $0 -50%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $1 $0 -20%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 29 $71 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $71 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $73 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $72 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $223 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 30 $223 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 20 $75 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 16 $78 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 09 $74 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $74 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $65 17d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY No 0¢ $1 25d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 25d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 28d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 38d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 38d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 100d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $65 100d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $65 104d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 108d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 119d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 132d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 132d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 132d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 137d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 140d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 140d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 141d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 141d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 142d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 142d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 143d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 143d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 144d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 144d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 391 history records