Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0fd…2404 world 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized +$9 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% −$12
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-84.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -83.3% -84.9% 0% 0% -84.9%
≤30d 1 -83.3% -84.9% 0% 0% -84.9%
≤90d 1 -83.3% -84.9% 0% 0% -84.9%
all 1 -83.3% -84.9% 0% 0% -84.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -84.9% 0% -84.9%
10% -86.4% 0% -86.4%
15% -87.7% 0% -87.7%
20% -88.9% 0% -88.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $54 $45 −$9 (-17%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 74¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 58¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.92 · official $97.68 (match) · 9 history records