Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0ff…593d sports 55 markets active 5d ago coverage 68d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,336 (-15%) realized −$11,336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 38L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,336per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1,159est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$18,476
crypto 10% −$3,217
other 2% +$1,110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.5% -37.2% 22% 22% +12.8%
≤30d 49 -28.0% -34.9% 31% 29% -9.3%
≤90d 54 -29.4% -36.1% 30% 28% -39.6%
all 54 -29.4% -36.1% 30% 28% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 28% -39.6%
10% -42.2% 26% -45.4%
15% -47.8% 22% -50.7%
20% -52.9% 22% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$735) neutral
Persistence
early -35% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$417 vs −$717 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,159
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage68d
Avg bet$1,336
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $649 −$444 -68%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $497 −$52 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $194 −$188 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $977 +$1,554 +159%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1,024 −$43 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $72 −$71 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $207 −$200 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $929 +$750 +81%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 10 $36 −$3 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 10 $205 −$22 -11%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $307 −$15 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $310 −$310 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $92 −$56 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$92 -89%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $102 −$50 -49%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1,120 +$1,022 +91%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $50 −$4 -9%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $209 −$137 -66%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $202 +$195 +96%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $254 +$256 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $258 +$31 +12%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $599 +$308 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $514 −$475 -92%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $1,150 −$81 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $29 +$21 +74%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $195 −$167 -86%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $245 −$240 -98%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Sho Shimabukuro vs Jurij Rodionov Jun 07 $46 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 07 $101 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 07 $203 +$109 +54%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $10,321 −$49 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 04 $423 −$423 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 04 $1,286 +$121 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 04 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $101 +$87 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 04 $48 −$46 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3,401 +$764 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 04 $207 −$133 -64%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 04 $696 −$454 -65%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $2 +$1 +27%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $2,082 −$1,247 -60%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $735 +$478 +65%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 144.5 Apr 06 $19,417 −$19,161 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $446 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 19¢ $445 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 20¢ $497 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $194 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 52¢ $193 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $197 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $939 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,592 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $977 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $981 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $72 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,024 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY 5¢ $151 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $207 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $1,679 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $473 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 19¢ $32 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 15¢ $183 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 49¢ $258 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $310 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $456 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $33 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 50¢ $34 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $36 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Milwaukee Brewers 14¢ $36 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 34¢ $92 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 25¢ $52 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records