Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf0ff…a806 sports 270 markets active 2h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,231 (-22%) realized −$4,328 · open +$97
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%85W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$3,179
other 8% −$776
crypto 2% −$159
culture 0% +$11
world 0% −$38
politics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.7% -15.6% 33% 33% -14.0%
≤30d 3 -6.7% -15.6% 33% 33% -14.0%
≤90d 27 -62.2% -65.8% 15% 15% -69.9%
all 268 -29.4% -36.1% 32% 30% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.1% 30% -28.2%
10% -42.2% 29% -35.1%
15% -47.8% 27% -41.4%
20% -52.9% 25% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$63 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$4,328
Unrealized+$97
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses85 / 183
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions2
Markets (closed)268 / 270
History coverage587d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 99¢ $152 $263 +$112 (+74%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 −$27 -53%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $54 −$3 -6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $58 +$22 +39%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 19 $47 −$46 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $40 +$8 +20%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $1,215 −$1,069 -88%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $805 −$478 -59%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $13 −$13 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $39 +$78 +197%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Apr 27 $116 −$114 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $96 −$96 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $143 −$143 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-3.5) Apr 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $357 −$188 -53%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $59 −$52 -88%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Apr 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $141 +$233 +165%
Bucks vs. Wizards Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Mar 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Mar 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Heat (-3.5) Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Player 152 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Player 172 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Player 31 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Player 38 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Player 173 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Player 118 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Player 157 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Player 58 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Player 99 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Jets vs. Sharks Mar 02 $97 +$114 +117%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Mar 02 $56 +$80 +144%
Spread: Rockets (-10.5) Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Feb 24 $19 −$19 -100%
76ers vs. Suns Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Pacers vs. Hawks Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers Feb 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-15.5) Feb 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $154 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $24 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $49 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $79 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 8d
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) BUY Cavaliers 26¢ $47 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 83¢ $40 38d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $9 38d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 47¢ $2 49d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 50d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $245 50d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 50d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $2 50d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $5 50d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $6 50d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $233 50d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $29 52d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Magic 41¢ $13 54d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $103 54d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 33¢ $39 55d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $5 57d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $157 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.12 · official $298.12 (match) · 697 history records