Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf102…1348 sports 282 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (403 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$22,416 (+105%) realized +$22,766 · open −$350
Gross ROI / mkt +162% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +102% what you keep after slip
Net edge+102%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%59W / 68L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day403.1pace
Fees−$229est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$11,389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$2,498
other 40% +$3,253
crypto 2% +$12
world 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (403 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+137.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 +162.0% +137.0% 46% 46% +40.6%
≤30d 127 +162.0% +137.0% 46% 46% +40.6%
≤90d 127 +162.0% +137.0% 46% 46% +40.6%
all 127 +162.0% +137.0% 46% 46% +40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover403.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +137.0% 46% +40.6%
10% ← realistic here +114.3% 46% +27.1%
15% +93.6% 45% +14.8%
20% +74.6% 44% +3.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +162% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +238% → late +87% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$76 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$11,389
Realized+$22,766
Unrealized−$350
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses59 / 68
Est. fees paid−$229
Open positions165
Markets (closed)127 / 282
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$76
Trades / day403.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 165 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ $151 $212 +$62 (+41%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 42¢ 44¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 47¢ 48¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 33¢ 36¢ $187 $200 +$13 (+7%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 42¢ 42¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 12¢ 12¢ $190 $178 −$12 (-6%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 20¢ 20¢ $177 $172 −$5 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 26¢ 24¢ $177 $169 −$9 (-5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 36¢ $165 $167 +$2 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 42¢ 36¢ $190 $161 −$29 (-15%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 34¢ $148 $157 +$9 (+6%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 47¢ 44¢ $167 $155 −$12 (-7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 39¢ 38¢ $154 $152 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 47¢ 46¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 25¢ 24¢ $146 $142 −$4 (-3%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 51¢ 44¢ $153 $134 −$20 (-13%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 41¢ 40¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 31¢ 30¢ $133 $129 −$4 (-3%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 42¢ $134 $127 −$7 (-5%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? No 31¢ 28¢ $136 $124 −$12 (-9%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 41¢ 38¢ $127 $119 −$8 (-6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 42¢ 42¢ $118 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 12¢ 12¢ $119 $117 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 46¢ 46¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $114 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $139 −$66 -47%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $178 −$80 -45%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $203 +$262 +129%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $90 +$120 +134%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 +$83 +203%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $200 +$217 +108%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$92 +92%
Nolan McLean: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $99 +$117 +117%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$289 +957%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $182 +$782 +430%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$61 +204%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $169 −$78 -46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 −$10 -13%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$9 -46%
Brandon Young: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +85%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $170 −$81 -48%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $200 +$226 +113%
Jesús Luzardo: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $100 +$79 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$96 +97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $114 −$36 -31%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$87 +86%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $100 +$156 +156%
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Margaux Rouvroy Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $80 +$77 +96%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$294 +978%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$212 +707%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2 15m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 21m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 23m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 18¢ $0 24m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 25m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 43m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 46m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $10 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $11 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 38¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 18¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 29¢ $10 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $9 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $13 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $14 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $13 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $13 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $85 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $28 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $17 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $13 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 47¢ $37 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,388.91 · official $11,388.50 (match) · 3500 history records