Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf104…489d world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$12
other 18% −$3
politics 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 12% -6.8%
≤30d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 9% -7.5%
≤90d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 9% -7.5%
all 32 -5.7% -14.7% 53% 3% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 3% -8.4%
10% -22.9% 0% -17.1%
15% -30.3% 0% -25.1%
20% -37.1% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage472d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 39¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $56 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $77 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $24 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $79 +$13 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Turbo Granny' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award May 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 04 $16 $0 -3%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $16 $0 +1%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 21 $16 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $15 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $29 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $44 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $44 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $23 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $40 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $30 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $43 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.51 · official $39.12 (match) · 112 history records