Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F1 0xf105…5835 world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$27 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%29W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$53
14 days+$43
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$58
other 24% $0
politics 21% +$1
sports 8% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +6.7% -3.5% 50% 17% -6.7%
≤30d 33 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 86 -0.7% -10.1% 29% 2% -9.3%
all 100 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses29 / 71
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage331d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $188 $187 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $189 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $155 +$18 +12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $193 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $149 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $87 −$5 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $274 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $51 +$36 +71%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $143 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $126 +$4 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $958 −$3 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $138 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $139 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $141 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$3 -52%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $175 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $144 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $70 −$3 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $259 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $133 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 03 $2 $0 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $381 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $268 +$18 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $190 −$3 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $136 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $119 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $57 −$30 -52%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 22 $294 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $155 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $172 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $440 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $42 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $477 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $163 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $162 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $346 −$1 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $204 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $337 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $313 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $326 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $182 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $188 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $189 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $189 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $25 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $13 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $135 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $4 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $47 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $104 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $95 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $26 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $34 38h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $87 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $139 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $15 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 88¢ $158 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $149 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $149 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $74 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $72 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $50 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $50 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.25 · official $187.25 (match) · 437 history records