Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf106…0541 sports 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-9%) realized −$60 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$188
14 days−$163
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$137
crypto 10% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -34.6% -40.9% 40% 40% -38.1%
≤30d 79 -27.0% -33.9% 46% 42% -25.4%
≤90d 79 -27.0% -33.9% 46% 42% -25.4%
all 79 -27.0% -33.9% 46% 42% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.9% 42% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -40.2% 35% -32.6%
15% -46.0% 30% -39.1%
20% -51.3% 22% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$60
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 43
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage10d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ 36¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-33%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 35¢ 6¢ $21 $3 −$18 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $35 +$21 +61%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $13 −$12 -95%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $11 +$7 +66%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $9 +$7 +72%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $16 +$10 +63%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $12 −$6 -52%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +75%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $4 −$2 -58%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $8 +$4 +42%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $17 +$7 +43%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $14 +$5 +35%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $14 +$8 +55%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $21 +$4 +18%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $13 +$9 +73%
Spread: Paris Basketball (-7.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $18 +$19 +106%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -22%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +67%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $6 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 44¢ $3 14m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $17 16m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 10¢ $1 18m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 37¢ $5 29m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $5 36m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $11 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $56 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $19 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 58¢ $11 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $5 13h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $13 13h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 27¢ $1 17h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 73¢ $6 17h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $5 17h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 95¢ $18 18h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $16 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 52¢ $11 18h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $26 19h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $9 20h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 42¢ $1 21h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $5 21h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $5 21h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $5 21h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $16 22h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 89¢ $9 26h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 47¢ $5 27h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Cameron Norrie 54¢ $4 27h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 59¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.02 · official $16.02 (match) · 239 history records