Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:59:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf10a…58c8 crypto 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+3%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%77W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days+$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$55
other 13% −$10
sports 5% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 -6.2% -15.1% 31% 27% -11.5%
≤30d 258 -3.3% -12.6% 30% 26% -12.6%
≤90d 258 -3.3% -12.6% 30% 26% -12.6%
all 259 -3.7% -12.9% 30% 26% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 26% -13.1%
10% -21.2% 24% -21.4%
15% -28.8% 22% -29.0%
20% -35.8% 19% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses77 / 182
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)259 / 259
History coverage226d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 259 Trades
no open positions (140 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$30 +937%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$7 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$8 +360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 590 history records