Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$328

7 days+$328

14 days+$328

30 days+$328

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$19	$0	−$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	46¢	0¢	$96	$0	−$96 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	11¢	0¢	$90	$0	−$90 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 12	$703	+$234	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 12	$300	+$403	+134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 12	$145	−$145	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 12	$96	−$90	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 12	$93	+$148	+159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 12	$107	−$107	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 12	$100	−$96	-96%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 11	$20	−$19	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

crypto 99% +$347

sports 1% −$19

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$703	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$300	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$50	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$94	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$96	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$93	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	BUY Down	0¢	$107	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$100	2h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$20	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-29.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-21.7%	-29.2%	38%	38%	+9.6%
≤30d	8	-21.7%	-29.2%	38%	38%	+9.6%
≤90d	8	-21.7%	-29.2%	38%	38%	+9.6%
all	8	-21.7%	-29.2%	38%	38%	+9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.2%	38%	+9.6%
10%	-35.9%	38%	-0.9%
15%	-42.1%	25%	-10.5%
20%	-47.8%	25%	-19.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.