Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F1 0xf10e…4308 weather 636 markets active 0h ago coverage 413d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,446 (+6%) realized +$4,432 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate74%468W / 165L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$89
14 days+$299
30 days+$494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$4,159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +7.3% -3.0% 65% 46% -6.2%
≤30d 202 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 44% -6.0%
≤90d 496 +14.5% +3.6% 69% 51% -1.9%
all 633 +12.6% +1.9% 74% 44% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 44% -4.7%
10% -7.8% 31% -13.8%
15% -16.7% 22% -22.1%
20% -24.9% 15% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized+$4,432
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses468 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)633 / 636
History coverage413d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 633 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? No 85¢ 96¢ $150 $170 +$20 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $67 $62 −$5 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 88¢ 86¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $231 +$21 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$28 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $86 +$19 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $211 +$41 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$16 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $46 −$38 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$5 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$14 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $106 +$30 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $91 +$26 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$11 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $501 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$11 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $483 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $106 +$30 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $36 +$23 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$7 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $646 +$39 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $35 3m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $151 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 23h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 29h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 30h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $40 30h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $50 47h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 77¢ $27 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $201 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 90¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? SELL Yes 57¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.39 · official $266.30 (match) · 1447 history records