Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F1 0xf113…17bc other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate15%17W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$15
politics 28% −$11
sports 12% +$11
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 112 -1.0% -10.4% 15% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses17 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage132d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $647 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $282 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $495 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $290 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $492 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $474 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $225 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $227 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $226 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $573 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $443 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,262 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $581 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $232 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $240 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $237 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $245 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $275 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $228 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $244 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 06 $271 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $475 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 05 $256 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $253 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $262 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 04 $432 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $441 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $228 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $488 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $40 8d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $202 17d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $202 28d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $282 28d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $282 31d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $295 31d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $295 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 54d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $40 55d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $209 63d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $209 65d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $224 65d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $224 65d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $290 65d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $290 66d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $270 66d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $270 66d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $226 66d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $226 66d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $276 66d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $277 67d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $204 67d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $204 67d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $226 67d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $226 67d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $256 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.00 · official $35.00 (match) · 340 history records