Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf114…8003 crypto 396 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$915 (+4%) realized +$950 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%144W / 238L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$301
14 days+$275
30 days+$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$1,255
crypto 28% −$531
economics 6% −$18
other 6% +$1
sports 2% +$6
politics 1% −$12
finance 1% +$13
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +23.6% +11.8% 59% 52% +5.4%
≤30d 143 -9.4% -18.0% 32% 24% -6.0%
≤90d 299 -9.3% -17.9% 37% 29% -4.3%
all 382 -5.7% -14.7% 38% 28% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 28% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 21% -15.3%
15% -30.3% 15% -23.5%
20% -37.2% 13% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$9 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$950
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses144 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions14
Markets (closed)382 / 396
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $88 $62 −$26 (-30%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $39 $46 +$8 (+20%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $16 $10 −$5 (-33%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-42%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $128 −$49 -38%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 17 $24 +$7 +27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $14 +$7 +51%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $6 $0 -6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $530 +$95 +18%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $17 +$39 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +130%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 16 $213 +$22 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $22 +$30 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $71 −$4 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $111 +$11 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -54%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +46%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 15 $48 +$16 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$14 -58%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $16 +$10 +62%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$18 +99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $182 −$38 -21%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $42 +$80 +192%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $235 +$69 +29%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $57 +$13 +24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $30 −$3 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +140%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-Jun Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 08 $120 −$16 -14%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $21 −$8 -40%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $57 +$13 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $448 +$19 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 06 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 −$2 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $8 −$7 -87%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $117 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 16m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 22m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 11¢ $0 26m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 12¢ $1 26m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 31m
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 36m
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 43m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 8¢ $37 43m
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 46m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 53m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 53m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 54m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 8¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $22 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.34 · official $151.15 (match) · 3500 history records