Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf11b…ea23 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$8
sports 10% −$11
politics 8% $0
other 5% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 38% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 25 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 39 -3.1% -12.3% 31% 0% -10.2%
all 40 -5.5% -14.5% 30% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -10.7%
10% -22.7% 0% -19.2%
15% -30.1% 0% -27.0%
20% -37.0% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage491d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 67¢ 66¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $30 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $30 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $31 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $29 −$1 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $30 −$5 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 12 $302 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $275 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $261 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $246 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $214 $0 +0%
Miami (FL) vs. Florida State Feb 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $31 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $3 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $25 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $29 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $13 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $16 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $21 38h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $9 38h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $17 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $13 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $15 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $15 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $33 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $33 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $13 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $17 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $29 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $16 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $30 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.69 · official $30.59 · 144 history records