Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F1 0xf11c…fa02 crypto 1335 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$586 (-2%) realized −$586 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate68%1146W / 547L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$246
sports 7% +$155
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 462 -73.0% -75.5% 15% 9% -59.3%
≤30d 463 -73.0% -75.6% 15% 9% -59.3%
≤90d 1364 -25.0% -32.1% 65% 13% -20.3%
all 1693 -20.7% -28.2% 68% 16% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 16% -18.8%
10% -35.1% 8% -26.6%
15% -41.4% 5% -33.7%
20% -47.1% 2% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$586
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1146 / 547
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1693 / 1335
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1693 Trades
no open positions (482 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - January 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 13? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +64%
Solana Up or Down - December 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $0 −$5 -2301%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 33m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $47 34m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 88¢ $42 36m
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $62 39m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $32 44m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 39¢ $12 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $30 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 44¢ $5 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 81¢ $50 54m
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 80¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $7 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $3 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 81¢ $1 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $1 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $1 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $1 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $1 11h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $1 11h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records