Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:38:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F1
0xf11c…ff89
crypto · 129 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$521 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$544 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$117
Realized−$544
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses50 / 70
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)120 / 129
History coverage585d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 9 History 120 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$71
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 26¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26? Down 25¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Up 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 13? Down 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 +$35 +158%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $20 +$23 +112%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? Jun 09 $10 +$11 +109%
Thailand leading at halftime? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
China PR leading at halftime? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$44 +216%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $71 +$33 +46%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 30 $26 +$66 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 20 $20 −$20 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $50 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 15 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 15 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 14 $20 +$19 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 14 $20 +$20 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 14 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Feb 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 14 $20 +$20 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 13 $40 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $10 +$6 +58%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 13? Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 13? Feb 13 $110 +$68 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 13 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 26% −$157
finance 19% −$156
other 19% −$138
politics 18% −$65
sports 8% −$34
world 6% +$24
tech 2% +$30
economics 2% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 21h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 31h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 31h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $20 31h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 33h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 33h
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 33h
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 33h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 39h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 39h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $43 39h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 44h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $65 44h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 46h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 46h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $21 2d
Thailand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
China PR leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 13d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $42 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -29.6% -36.3% 27% 27% -41.2%
≤30d 15 +6.3% -3.8% 40% 40% -1.8%
≤90d 15 +6.3% -3.8% 40% 40% -1.8%
all 120 +1.2% -8.4% 42% 41% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 41% -21.2%
10% -17.2% 40% -28.8%
15% -25.2% 37% -35.6%
20% -32.5% 32% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.36 · official $117.41 (match) · 291 history records