Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf11c…4190 other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%61W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$14
culture 21% −$1
crypto 19% −$24
weather 7% −$53
politics 4% +$1
finance 2% $0
world 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 25 -15.8% -23.9% 84% 0% -17.4%
all 69 -6.9% -15.8% 88% 0% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 0% -11.7%
10% -23.8% 0% -20.1%
15% -31.2% 0% -27.8%
20% -37.9% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses61 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage544d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on June 1? Jun 13 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 25? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? May 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on May 14? May 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 8? May 13 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 29? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 1? May 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on April 25? Apr 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 24? Apr 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 27? Apr 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 19? Apr 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on April 18? Apr 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Apr 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 14? Apr 18 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on April 13? Apr 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 10 Apr 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on April 14? Apr 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on April 7? Apr 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in March? Apr 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 07 $79 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20? Mar 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January? Feb 07 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? Feb 07 $63 $0 +0%
Will Other be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Nov 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15? Oct 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the most valuable company on October 31? Oct 14 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Oct 14 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 14 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 16? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? May 11 $6 $0 +1%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Abdullah Öcalan be freed before April? Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 07 $3 $0 +1%
Boeing at fault for South Korea plane crash? Apr 07 $3 $0 +0%
RFK's daughter-in-law picked as CIA deputy director? Apr 07 $3 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed before April? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Trump uses a recess appointment for Cabinet? Apr 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 22 $10 $0 +0%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? Mar 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine take responsibility for X attack by Friday? Mar 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Israel withdraw from Philadelphi corridor by March 8? Mar 12 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $86 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $78 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $17 35d
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $58 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $21 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 46d
Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store BUY No 100¢ $11 51d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $72 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $28 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 100¢ $41 60d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 29? BUY No 100¢ $18 60d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $12 64d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $10 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 64d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 71d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $41 71d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $12 71d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 BUY No 100¢ $17 79d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 10 BUY No 100¢ $29 79d
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $31 79d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $27 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 14? BUY No 99¢ $21 79d
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $110 82d
Will BNB reach $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20? BUY No 100¢ $47 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $79 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $125 141d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $63 150d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in January? BUY No 100¢ $62 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.94 · official $85.94 (match) · 136 history records