Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F1 0xf11d…676b other 32 markets active 6d ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$450per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$7
politics 41% −$8
world 12% −$2
sports 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 29 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,336) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage86d
Avg bet$450
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,412 −$1 -0%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,414 −$2 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,381 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,399 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Jun 16 $1,396 $0 +0%
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,359 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 15 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $1,419 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Apr 22 $176 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $170 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $7 −$1 -23%
Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $160 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Mar 29 $108 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control Mar 29 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $173 $0 -0%
Will Breno Corã win Big Brother Brasil 26? Mar 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 5d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 5d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 5d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 5d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $9 5d
Will Scott McTominay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 5d
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,410 8d
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $59 8d
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $16 8d
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,368 8d
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $23 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,412 8d
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,390 8d
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 8d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $975 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 8d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $404 8d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,381 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 9d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,397 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,364 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $19 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $19 9d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 9d
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,067 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records