Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf11e…3bc1 sports 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$467 (+1%) realized +$474 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%81W / 93L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$422est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$674
7 days−$1,025
14 days−$1,231
30 days−$1,382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$733
other 2% −$409
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.0% -38.4% 29% 29% -76.6%
≤30d 35 -15.2% -23.3% 37% 37% -19.6%
≤90d 119 -16.0% -24.0% 36% 32% -17.9%
all 174 -2.0% -11.3% 47% 40% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 40% -8.7%
10% -19.8% 37% -17.4%
15% -27.6% 33% -25.4%
20% -34.7% 29% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$187 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$474
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses81 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$422
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage128d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal to win the second half? No 38¢ 37¢ $260 $253 −$7 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $100 +$257 +257%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $473 −$473 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $301 −$296 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $55 −$54 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $280 −$275 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $348 −$342 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $382 +$456 +119%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,350 −$198 -15%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $344 −$338 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $294 +$410 +140%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $410 −$403 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $550 +$556 +101%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Jun 03 $309 +$324 +105%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $999 +$323 +32%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $908 −$896 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $670 +$897 +134%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $89 −$87 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $413 −$406 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $201 +$428 +213%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $324 +$471 +146%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $188 −$188 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $508 −$500 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $332 +$411 +124%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $704 −$696 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $84 −$82 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $403 +$346 +86%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $283 −$279 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $204 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $206 +$216 +105%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $146 −$146 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $354 +$229 +65%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner May 17 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $160 +$313 +196%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $230 −$226 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $85 +$330 +388%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $286 +$289 +101%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 1 Winner May 15 $166 +$286 +172%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) May 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 14 $82 +$136 +165%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 14 $107 +$42 +39%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $159 −$156 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $174 −$171 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 14 $85 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs MOUZ NXT - Map 2 Winner May 14 $127 −$125 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 38¢ $265 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 60¢ $400 23h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 28¢ $99 24h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 28¢ $1 24h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 30¢ $59 26h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner SELL Grey Trac 28¢ $1 29h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Grey Trac 23¢ $1 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $473 44h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $156 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $144 2d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 11¢ $55 6d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 37¢ $280 10d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 42¢ $348 10d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 44¢ $40 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 45¢ $342 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 78¢ $907 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $89 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $354 11d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $344 11d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 41¢ $294 12d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 43¢ $410 12d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 49¢ $550 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner BUY Sinners 50¢ $72 13d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G BUY INOX Division 48¢ $309 14d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 75¢ $999 18d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 33¢ $4 18d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 63¢ $904 18d
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY OG 24¢ $89 19d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $16 19d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 41¢ $654 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.08 · official $253.08 (match) · 532 history records