Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

F1 0xf11f…4499 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$38 (-2%) realized +$1,200 · open −$1,238

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +160% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +118% what you keep after slip

Net edge+118%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$231per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+135.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+160.5%	+135.7%	100%	100%	+136.5%
≤30d	2	+160.5%	+135.7%	100%	100%	+136.5%
≤90d	2	+160.5%	+135.7%	100%	100%	+136.5%
all	2	+160.5%	+135.7%	100%	100%	+136.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+135.7%	100%	+136.5%
10%	+113.1%	100%	+113.9%
15%	+92.6%	100%	+93.2%
20%	+73.7%	100%	+74.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +161% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +161% · $-wt +161% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$236 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$49

Realized+$1,200

Unrealized−$1,238

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)2 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$231

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Brazil?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$200	$45	−$155 (-78%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$700	$3	−$697 (-100%)
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$50	$1	−$49 (-99%)
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Haiti?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$80	$1	−$79 (-99%)
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$257	$1	−$257 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil?	Jun 24	$190	+$311	+163%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti?	Jun 24	$102	+$161	+158%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil?	SELL Yes	32¢	$501	0m
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti?	BUY Yes	21¢	$263	53m
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti?	SELL Yes	19¢	$264	53m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil?	BUY Yes	12¢	$190	1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Brazil?	BUY Yes	2¢	$206	1h
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti?	BUY Yes	7¢	$102	1h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	12¢	$718	1h
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	6¢	$82	1h
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.48 · official $511.74 · 9 history records