Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf11f…1158 sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$520 (-6%) realized −$526 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%44W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$275
7 days−$291
14 days−$518
30 days−$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$1,053
other 22% +$416
crypto 2% +$107
world 1% +$7
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +7.1% -3.1% 38% 30% -14.0%
≤30d 103 +7.9% -2.3% 42% 33% -15.7%
≤90d 105 +7.6% -2.7% 42% 33% -15.8%
all 105 +7.6% -2.7% 42% 33% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 33% -15.8%
10% -12.0% 23% -23.8%
15% -20.5% 19% -31.2%
20% -28.3% 17% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$36 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized−$526
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses44 / 61
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage43d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $260 $266 +$7 (+3%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Under 89¢ 88¢ $176 $175 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $156 +$126 +80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $330 +$39 +12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 +$43 +280%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $14 −$5 -34%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $197 +$107 +55%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$6 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $12 −$5 -42%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $11 −$4 -39%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $28 −$17 -60%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $25 +$22 +88%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 −$48 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $262 −$261 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $261 +$1 +0%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$34 +223%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -18%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $146 −$3 -2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $61 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $231 −$18 -8%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $232 +$14 +6%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $198 +$34 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $125 +$99 +79%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $29 −$2 -8%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $139 −$8 -6%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $16 +$124 +784%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $292 −$290 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $41 +$266 +649%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $125 −$122 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $358 −$69 -19%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $132 +$18 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $99 +$20 +20%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $120 +$41 +34%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $263 7m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 97¢ $282 55m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 53¢ $156 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Under 76¢ $52 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Under 74¢ $52 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Under 69¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $367 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $369 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $330 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $58 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $5 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 20h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 12¢ $15 20h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 8¢ $10 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $298 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $6 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $176 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 43h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 43h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 54¢ $25 44h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $7 45h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 11¢ $7 45h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $11 45h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 10¢ $11 45h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $19 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.56 · official $441.56 (match) · 227 history records