Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F1 0xf120…3ae6 crypto 400 markets active 4h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$116 (-5%) realized −$113 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate88%348W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day67.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$134
14 days−$131
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$11
world 8% −$119
sports 4% −$5
other 1% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 394 -1.2% -10.6% 88% 7% -13.5%
≤30d 397 -0.9% -10.4% 88% 7% -13.4%
≤90d 397 -0.9% -10.4% 88% 7% -13.4%
all 397 -0.9% -10.4% 88% 7% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 7% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 3% -21.7%
15% -26.8% 2% -29.2%
20% -34.0% 2% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses348 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)397 / 400
History coverage7d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day67.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 80¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 73¢ 75¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $3 +$1 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$30 -79%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 49¢ $2 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 29h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 100¢ $4 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 29h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 31h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 73¢ $4 35h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 42h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 70¢ $2 42h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 70¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 41¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 47¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $8 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $30 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $2 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.39 · official $8.02 (match) · 819 history records