Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F1 0xf124…9d72 other 338 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$93 (-1%) realized −$102 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate78%262W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$106
14 days−$40
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$66
crypto 36% −$187
politics 6% +$47
finance 6% −$58
tech 5% +$84
sports 4% +$72
culture 2% +$6
world 2% −$13
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.9% -36.6% 60% 60% -32.5%
≤30d 41 -17.8% -25.7% 66% 59% -23.2%
≤90d 114 -3.5% -12.7% 76% 70% -8.7%
all 336 -1.2% -10.6% 78% 70% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 70% -10.4%
10% -19.2% 37% -19.0%
15% -27.0% 18% -26.8%
20% -34.1% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$33 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses262 / 74
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)336 / 338
History coverage203d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+13%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 68¢ 76¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $43 +$8 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -98%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $44 +$6 +13%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $44 +$6 +13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $46 +$6 +13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $49 −$48 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $48 +$6 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $42 +$12 +30%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $48 +$7 +14%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$7 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $47 +$9 +18%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $12 +$7 +58%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 10 $47 +$8 +18%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Jun 10 $47 +$9 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $25 +$11 +45%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $47 +$5 +11%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $46 +$11 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $46 +$4 +9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 5? Jun 05 $19 +$6 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $38 +$12 +32%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 05 $15 +$9 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $46 +$6 +12%
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election Jun 03 $48 −$47 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $48 +$13 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $33 +$19 +56%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $40 −$39 -98%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 27? May 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $47 +$16 +35%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 26? May 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $51 +$5 +9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 22? May 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $54 −$53 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 20? May 20 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $56 +$13 +23%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18? May 18 $20 +$11 +54%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 18? May 18 $37 +$15 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $90B and $100B at market close on May 14 $55 +$6 +11%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on May 14 $55 +$9 +17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $102 on May 13? May 13 $17 +$9 +54%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 13? May 13 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $57 +$9 +16%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 12? May 12 $32 −$31 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 68¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $43 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $34 2d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 88¢ $44 3d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 88¢ $44 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 88¢ $46 4d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 94¢ $46 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $49 5d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 88¢ $48 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $42 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? BUY No 66¢ $23 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 88¢ $48 7d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? BUY No 72¢ $19 7d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $47 8d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? BUY No 83¢ $47 8d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? BUY No 84¢ $47 8d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? BUY No 62¢ $12 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $25 9d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 66¢ $23 9d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? BUY No 90¢ $47 9d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $46 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $46 12d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 5? BUY No 75¢ $19 12d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 60¢ $16 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $38 13d
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d BUY No 63¢ $15 14d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $46 15d
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election BUY No 76¢ $48 15d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $15 16d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $48 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.12 · official $80.12 (match) · 678 history records