Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:57:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F1 0xf125…3878 sports 6 markets active 3d ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$24
world 39% $0
politics 13% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 1 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 6 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.7%
all 6 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×5.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.42 per $1 lost it wins $8.42
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage72d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? Jun 17 $290 −$2 -1%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) May 07 $451 +$14 +3%
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? May 06 $451 $0 -0%
Spread: FC Nantes (-2.5) Apr 23 $409 +$2 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 22 $409 $0 +0%
Spread: Girona FC (-2.5) Apr 08 $206 +$9 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 3d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $278 3d
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $290 3d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Wuhan San Zhen FC 97¢ $354 45d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Wuhan San Zhen FC 97¢ $97 45d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $155 45d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $148 45d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $148 45d
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $451 45d
Spread: FC Nantes (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 100¢ $409 59d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $409 59d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $409 59d
Spread: Girona FC (-2.5) BUY Villarreal CF 96¢ $206 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records