Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F1 0xf126…a54c sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+8%) realized +$102 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%24W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$116
14 days+$96
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$28
other 22% +$54
crypto 2% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +5.8% -4.3% 58% 58% +1.0%
≤30d 42 +3.4% -6.5% 57% 57% -2.5%
≤90d 42 +3.4% -6.5% 57% 57% -2.5%
all 42 +3.4% -6.5% 57% 57% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 57% -2.5%
10% -15.4% 57% -11.8%
15% -23.6% 55% -20.3%
20% -31.1% 45% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$102
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses24 / 18
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage10d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 74¢ $30 $33 +$4 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $40 +$33 +83%
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 29 $20 +$15 +73%
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Jack Draper Jun 29 $150 −$18 -12%
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $20 +$14 +67%
Marin Cilic vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $40 +$44 +109%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $50 +$37 +73%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $25 −$1 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 +$27 +55%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $64 +$72 +112%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $39 +$16 +42%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $40 −$40 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $25 +$12 +50%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $50 +$29 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 +$21 +83%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 24 $18 +$10 +54%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $25 +$6 +23%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur Jun 24 $22 −$3 -15%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $28 −$28 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 +$12 +62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $15 $0 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $10 +$4 +36%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $13 +$8 +65%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $21 −$21 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $23 +$18 +79%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$18 +70%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) Jun 20 $33 +$29 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Arthur Rinderknech 57¢ $20 13h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 59¢ $20 13h
Marin Cilic vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 65¢ $20 13h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 49¢ $40 35h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $50 2d
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score SELL No 58¢ $24 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $25 2d
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Jack Draper BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $150 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $30 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 45¢ $34 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 61¢ $40 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 3d
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 70¢ $39 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 66¢ $25 3d
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 58¢ $20 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $20 4d
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 63¢ $50 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $20 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 54¢ $25 5d
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 65¢ $18 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur SELL Yunchaokete Bu 71¢ $18 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Clement Tabur BUY Yunchaokete Bu 79¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.30 · official $33.30 (match) · 74 history records